FOREX-Euro supported by Greek hopes but doubts linger
07/02/2012 at 12:16
Recasts, adds quotes, detail, updates prices
* Athens baulking at accepting painful terms for new package
* But traders cling to hopes Greece will secure rescue deal
* Aussie at 6-month high as RBA keeps rates on hold
* Tokyo sold Y1 trln in stealth intervention Nov -Japan MOF
By Neal Armstrong
LONDON, Feb. 7 Reuters - The euro held its ground against the dollar on Tuesday as most traders clung to hopes Greece would clinch a rescue package needed to avert a chaotic default, but nagging doubts over the agreement kept the common currency in check.
Optimism over Greece helped equities and other risk-sensitive currencies including the Australian dollar
For Greece, failure to secure the 130 billion euro $170 billion rescue would mean it faces a messy debt default and destabilise the entire euro zone.
"Clearly the tail-risk at this time is that developments in Greece lead to a disorderly situation and a sharp move lower in the euro," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at BTM-UFJ.
But if Greece does reach a deal, the euro could climb.
"The euro is performing relatively well given the deadlines for Greece keep being extended. This suggests there's more risks of a move to the topside should a deal be agreed," said Adrian Schmidt, currency strategist at Lloyds Banking Group.
European Union officials say the full package must be agreed with Greece and approved by the euro zone, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund before Feb. 15 to allow for complex legal procedures involved in the bond swap to be completed by a March 20 bond redemption.
Hopes for a deal have kept euro bears in check for now, resulting in a volatile but resilient single currency. The euro stood at $1.3130
Latest positioning data shows speculators trimmed their bets against the euro but the extent of short positioning was still high.
Technical analysts said a break of the January high and a move above the 38.2 percent retracement of the euro's October to January decline around $1.3244 was needed to open up fresh topside momentum.
Any positive reaction for the euro would however need to be treated with caution as worries that Portugal may require another bailout and concerns the euro zone will slip into recession keep many investors bearish on the common currency.
Renewed weakness in the euro may push it through support at $1.3020 which could see it drop to the Jan. 25 low of $1.2931 and then to $1.2857 - a 61.8 percent retracement of its January rise.
The one-month 25-delta euro/dollar risk-reversal
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THE CUT THAT NEVER WAS
The Aussie dollar gained broadly as much of the market had been wagering on a rate cut. In a brief statement after its monthly policy meeting, however, the RBA did leave the door open to an easing if domestic demand weakened further.
A jump in the Aussie saw it hit a six-month high of $1.0823 against the dollar
"If we continue to see positive equity developments it will be very hard to sell the Aussie against the dollar or the yen, but on a relative basis it is starting to look a little stretched," said Schmidt.
Against the yen, the dollar gained 0.1 percent to 76.70 yen
It was well bid after Japan Finance Minister Jun Azumi said the country followed up its record yen-selling intervention last year with covert operations and that it is ready to step in again to counter speculative moves.
Additional reporting by Antoni Slodkowski; Editing by Anna Willard
neal.armstrong@thomsonreuters.comReuters Messaging:neal.armstrong.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net+44 207 5420876
Currency bid prices at 1050 GMT
All data taken from Reuters with percent change calculated from the daily U.S. close at 2130 GMT. Last US Close % Chg YTD % 2011 06 Feb
Close ----------------------------------------- Euro/dlrEUR= 1.3140 1.3131 +0.07 +1.64 1.2928 Dlr/yenJPY= 76.72 76.56 +0.21 -0.18 76.86 Euro/yenEURJPY= 100.81 100.55 +0.26 +1.43 99.39 Dlr/swissCHF= 0.9192 0.9185 +0.08 -2.20 0.9399 Stg/dlrGBP= 1.5813 1.5822 -0.06 +2.01 1.5502 Dlr/cadCAD= 0.9962 0.9954 +0.08 -2.29 1.0195 Aus/dlrAUD= 1.0788 1.0727 +0.57 +5.53 1.0223 NZD/DlrNZD= 0.8355 0.8338 +0.20 +7.38 0.7781 Euro/swissEURCHF= 1.2080 1.2062 +0.15 -0.61 1.2154 Euro/stgEURGBP= 0.8308 0.8297 +0.13 -0.34 0.8336 Euro/sekEURSEK= 8.8209 8.8214 -0.01 -1.16 8.9246 Dlr/NokNOK= 5.8018 5.8148 -0.22 -3.04 5.9837
Keywords: MARKETS FOREX