24/05/2013 at 13:46
U.S Durable Goods rise 3.3% MoM vs expectation of +1.5%. Another strong US release which is supporting the dollar this afternoon. EUR/USD traded to a low of 1.2915 post the release having once again failed to take out the strong resistance at 1.3020, having traded to a high of 1.2995 this morning. UST yields are on the rise once again with the 10 yr yield currently trading at 2.02%. Higher US yields are pressuring US stock markets which are expected to open in the red this afternoon.
24/05/2013 at 10:26
Germany's May IFO comes in at 105.7 vs expectation of 104.4. The current assessment index was at 110.0 with the expectations component at 101.6, both beter than expected. EUR/USD trades higher on the news to a high of 1.2990. Once again investors will watch the price reaction around the key resistance level at 1.3020, 200dma. A close above this level will lead to further dollar selling targeting a move towards 1.3060. EUR/GBP continues to grind higher on the back of the strong IFO report trading to a high of 0.8600.
24/05/2013 at 07:28
Nervousness continues with risk assets, and while the S&P 500 finished down just -0.29% and the Nikkei finished up 0.89%, the Nikkei was down nearly 6% at one point. With the debate centering about whether Bernanke is signalling a near-term tapering of QE or not, U.S. Treasury yields are perhaps the one to watch - 10-year yields are consolidating above 2%, and a move higher will likely be the trigger for a further sell off in risk assets as the market prices in reduced QE.
Eur/Usd (currently $1.2940) is consolidating around $1.29, albeit with some intraday volatility; support on the day at $1.2840 and resistance at $1.2960. Eur/Gbp (currently £0.8565) is grinding higher, stalling ahead of resistance at 86p; support comes in at the 100-day moving average (£0.8516).
German IFO at 9am is the main data release this morning, with U.S. Durable Goods at 1.30pm.
23/05/2013 at 13:40
US Initial jobless claims fell to 340k from 360k the previous week, vs forecast of 345k for the week ended 18th May. This is a moderate positive for risk given the sharp sell off in equity markets overnight. European equity markets continue to post losses with most indices off 2.5%. The US equity markets are pointing to losees of 1% at the off. US Treasury yields continue to trade higher with the 10 yield above 2.0%. The broad dollar selloff continus into the European trade with EUR/USD back above 1.2900 and EUR/GBP trading to 0.8565.
23/05/2013 at 07:49
Risk-off tone to risk assets returned aggressively overnight (S&P 500 -0.83%, Nikkei -7.32%, Dax Futures -1.1%) led by a sell off in U.S. Treasuries following Ben Bernankes press conference yesterday - the statement was initially dovish (premature tightening would be a risk to the economy) but subsequent Q&A fueled speculation that QE tapering may happen sooner than expected - the risk-off tone was compounded by weaker than expected Chinese PMI data; with the exception of the Yen, the dollar is broadly higher overnight as a result.
Eur/Usd (currently $1.2870) is back below support at $1.2880; key support comes in at $1.2770. Eur/Gbp (currently £0.8545) is consolidating above the 100-day moving average (£0.8512), with resistance on the day at 86p.
U.K. GDP at 9.30am is the main data release this morning, with U.S. employment data (1.30pm) and housing data (3pm) in the afternoon.
22/05/2013 at 15:02
The Euro trades to its best levels against the dollar this afternoon after Federal Chairman Ben Bernanke repeats: ''premature tightening risks slowing or ending recovery and policy to stay accommodative as long as needed'' EUR/USD trades to a high at 1.2995 just shy of the key resistance level at 1.3015 (200 dma). EUR/GBP is little changed holding below this mornings high at 0.8580
22/05/2013 at 09:40
Sterling has come under strong selling pressure after April Retail Sales fell 1.3% vs median estimate of 0.1% increase. The fall can be attributed to a sharp drop in food sales and continued weakness in consumer spending. Sterling is weaker on the news with EUR/GBP trading to a high of 0.8480 and Cable to 1.5075 post the release. The BOE minutes were also released showing the MPC voted 6 - 3 to maintain Asset Purchases at current levels and 9 -0 to keep rates on hold
22/05/2013 at 07:27
U.S. equities gained following comments from Fed member Bullard that stimulus should continue, while the BoJ maintained their asset-buying programmed (S&P 500 +0.17%, Nikkei +1.6%); the Dollar and the Yen were weaker as a result.
Eur/Usd (currently $1.2910) is consolidating just below resistance at $1.2930, with the next target $1.30 above here; support on the day at $1.2880. Eur/Gbp (currently £0.8525) closed above 85p, and now targets £0.8560.
U.K. Retail Sales at 9.30am is the main data release this morning, with U.S. housing data at 3pm in the afternoon.
21/05/2013 at 09:42
UK April CPI just released comes in lower than expected at +0.2% MoM, +2.4% YoY vs expectation of +0.4% & +2.6%. The lower than expected CPI print can be attributed to falling fuel costs. Sterling is weaker on the news with EUR/GBP trading to 0.8570 and cable trading back below 1.5200.
21/05/2013 at 07:27
Relatively subdued session overnight (S&P 500 -0.07%, Nikkei +0.13%), with the market largely in consolidation mode. Main headlines overnight include:
- Moody's has warned that if U.S. policy makers fail to agree on a budget deal, the U.S. faces a possible downgrade this year
- The minutes from the most recent RBA meeting were released overnight, with the reasoning for the 25 basis points cut a combination of the strong currency, low CPI and a subdued growth outlook
- Chicago Fed President Evans upgraded his outlook for the U.S. economy, although he emphasised that policy needs to remain supportive for now
Eur/Usd (currently $1.2885) looks to have based at $1.28 in the short-term, with resistance at $1.2930 on the day. Eur/Gbp (currently £0.8450) is sideways between 84p and 85p for now.
U.K. inflation data at 9.30am, but little of note for the rest of the day, with the release tomorrow evening of the FOMC minutes the main focus for the market.
20/05/2013 at 07:21
Asian equities are playing catchup with Fridays better than expected Michigan Consumer Confidence data (Nikkei +1.47%), while the Yen retraced some of its recent losses following comments by Japanese Economics Minister Amari that if the Yen continues to weaken it will have a negative impact on peoples lives.
Eur/Usd (currently $1.2845) looks to have based at $1.28 in the short-term, with resistance at $1.2930 on the day. Eur/Gbp (currently £0.8450) is sideways between 84p and 85p for now.
No data release of note today.
17/05/2013 at 15:06
The University of Michigan confidence measure came in better than expected at 83.7 (exp. 77.9) from 76.4 the previous month. U.S. leading indicators was above forecast also, at 0.6% for April (exp. 0.2%). U.S. equities continue to advance and USD buyers are testing 1.2800 support in EurUsd.
17/05/2013 at 07:31
Reversal of previous days price action in risk assets overnight (S&P 500 -0.50%, Nikkei +0.67%), with U.S. equities retracing following some weak economic data and Japanese equities gained from better than expected machinery orders data.
Eur/Usd (currently $1.2870) is finding support just above $1.2840, with resistance on the day at $.2930. Eur/Gbp (currently £0.8445) remains rangebound between 84p/85p.
Canadian CPI at 1.30pm and U.S. leading indicators at 3pm are the main data releases today.
16/05/2013 at 13:32
U.S. data just released show that consumer prices dropped more than forecast in April. The consumer price index dropped 0.4% (exp -0.3%) after falling 0.2% in March. The measure that includes the more volatile food and energy costs rose 0.1% (exp 0.2%). the drop in the cost of living looks to be solely down to lower fuel prices which is feeding into other sectors of the economy.
U.S. jobless claims rose to 360,000, up 32,000 on the week ended May 10th. This is the biggest surge in claims since Hurricane Sandy.
U.S. housing starts (MoM) dropped 16.5% in April. Analysts were looking for a 6.4% fall.
Equity futures are lower on the data release and the dollar has come under some pressure with EurUsd back above 1.2900.
16/05/2013 at 10:46
Euro-Zone CPI came in as expected showing a fall of -0.1% MoM and +1.2% YoY.
FX markets are unchanged with EurUsd trading below 1.2880 and EurGbp at 0.8455.
16/05/2013 at 07:22
Some weak economic data out of the U.S. yesterday failed to dent the bull run in risk assets (S&P 500 +0.51%), while Japanese equities took some profit (Nikkei -0.39%) following some better than expected GDP data (Q1 +0.9% QoQ).
Eur/Usd (currently $1.2870) is through support at $1.2880, with $1.2840 the next level on the downside; resistance on the day at $1.2940. Eur/Gbp (currently £0.8460) is within an 84p/85p range for now.
EZ CPI at 10am is the main data release this morning, with US CPI, Jobless Claims and Housing Starts at 1.30pm.
15/05/2013 at 14:15
U.S. April industrial production decreases 0.5% in April (expt. -0.2%). There was also a small downward revision to last month's figure (0.4% to 0.3%).
EurUsd holding below 1.2880.
15/05/2013 at 14:05
U.S. April producer prices dropped 0.7% in April, more than was expected (exp -0.6%). Slightly bearish for the dollar with EurUsd trading off its lows back to 1.2880.
15/05/2013 at 10:35
Bank of England Inflation report, Governor King speaking now:
King see U.K. GDP growth accelerating to 0.5% this quarter, sees stronger growth and weaker inflation than 3 months ago, says a recovery is in sight for the U.K. economy.
EurGbp has edged lower just finding support at 0.8440.
15/05/2013 at 10:01
Eurozone (EZ) GDP has just been released showing a fall of -0.2% QoQ (-0.1% expt) and -1.0% YoY. Muted reaction in Euro crosses so far.
Earlier this morning, we saw weak GDP figures out of Germany and France, echoed in the EZ release.
Also, the UK unemployment rate dropped to 7.8% from 7.9% in the preceding month. The change in jobless claims for April was -7,300 (-3,000 exp). GBP is a little stronger on the back of this data.