the treasury specialists

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• 07:14

  Risk assets higher overnight (S&P 500 +0.78%, Nikkei +1.83%) ahead of this evenings FOMC, with Japanese equities helped by some better than expected Japanese export data.

  Eur/Usd (currently $1.3405) is consolidating around $1.34, with near-term resistance at $1.3420 and support at $1.3340. Eur/Gbp (currently £0.8560) closed above the 100-day moving average yesterday (~£0.8546), with 86p the next level on the topside.

  Aside from the FOMC this evening, the minutes from the most recent BoE are released at 9.30am; nothing of note outside of that.

• 18 June 2013
• 10:00

  German June ZEW survey comes in at 38.5 better than the consensus forecast of 38.1 and up from 36.4 the previous month. EUR/USD trades higher on the release just shy of 1.3400.

  UK CPI data released earlier rose to 2.7% YoY, slightly ahead of forecast at 2.6%. EUR/GBP is little changed on the news trading at 0.8540 while cable trades at  1.5680 just below the strong resistance level at 1.5700 200 dma

• 07:12

  The market is treading water really (S&P 500 +0.76%, Nikkei -0.20%) ahead of this weeks FOMC meeting, with Bernanke's testimony tomorrow evening key. The RBA minutes were out overnight, similar in tone to the previous one and the easing bias remains. 

  Eur/Usd (currently $1.3340) is consolidating below $1.34, with support on the day at $1.3220. Eur/Gbp (currently £0.8520) continues to find resistance at the 100-day moving average (~£0.8547), with support at £0.8470 and 84p below that.

  Main data releases this morning are U.K. PPI and CPI at 9.30am, with German ZEW at 10am; this afternoon we have U.S. CPI and Housing Starts at 1.30pm.

• 17 June 2013
• 07:09

  Little news out over the weekend, but the Asian session started the week with a positive tone (Nikkei +2.73%), with risk-assets recouping some of last weeks losses. The main event this week for markets is the FOMC on Wednesday.

  Eur/Usd (currently $1.3330) is stalling ahead of $1.34, with support on the day at $1.3220. Eur/Gbp (currently £0.8495) continues to find resistance at the 100-day moving average (~£0.8547), with support at £0.8470 and 84p below that.

  Light on the data front today, with U.S. Empire Manufacturing at 1.30pm the only data release of note.

• 14 June 2013
• 16:14

  Data from the US saw headline PPI accelerate more than expected to 1.7% yoy in May compared to an expected 1.4%. On the other hand US Industrial production showed a flat reading for May against an expected .2% increase. EURUSD currently trading in the middle of todays range at $1.3338. EURGBP continues to find it difficult to break the .85-.86 range. Focus for the dollar next week will be on the FOMC meeting on Wednesday

• 07:28

  Bounce in risk-assets overnight (S&P 500 +1.48%, Nikkei +1.94%) as the market pares back the view that QE tapering will happen sooner rather than later.

  Eur/Usd (currently $1.3330) continues to grind higher, stalling ahead of $1.34; support on the day at $1.3290. Eur/Gbp (currently £0.8520) is sideways between the 100-day moving average (~£0.8547) and £0.8480.

  EZ CPI at 10am is the main data release this morning, with U.S. PPI at 1.30pm and Industrial Production at 2.15pm in the afternoon.

• 13 June 2013
• 14:35

  U.S. retail sales surprised to the upside advancing 0.6% in May (expc. 0.4%).  U.S. jobless claims dropped 12,000 in week ending June 8th where no change was expected.

  EurUsd intially dropped on the data to 1.3290 but has since recovered to trade just above 1.33

• 12 June 2013
• 09:57

  Jobless claims in the U.K. fell 8,600 in May more than predicted.  The ILO measure of U.K. unemployment rate remained at 7.8% for the three months to April.  This would suggest that the jobs market is moderately improving.

  GBP has moved higher with EurGbp testing support at 0.8480.

  Eurozone Industrial Production showed a MoM gain of 0.4% for April (no gain expected) and was -0.6% lower YoY (expt. -1.2%).  The gain was led by France where production increased by 2.3% MoM.

  EurUsd remains lower trading at 1.3290 after testing resistance earlier this morning at 1.3340.

• 07:22

  Risk assets are lower overnight (S&P 500 -1.02%, Nikkei -0.21%) as the market continues to talk about tapering of QE by the Fed and the fact that the BoJ disappointed the market by not taking further action; 'less supportive central banks' appears to be the focus for now.

  Eur/Usd (currently $1.3305) is anchored at $1.33 overnight, with support at $1.3230 and resistance at $1.3340. Eur/Gbp (currently £0.8505) is finding resistance at the 100-day moving average (~£0.8547); near-term support comes in at £0.8480.

  U.K. employment data at 9.30am is followed by EZ industrial production at 10am this morning, with little data of note this afternoon.

• 11 June 2013
• 09:49

  UK industrial production unexpectedly rose by 0.1% in April although manufacturing fell by 0.2% as expected.  The rise in industrial production has been put down to increased output by mining and water companies.

  EurGbp remains higher on the day at 0.8540