the treasury specialists

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• 09:56

  Spanish bond auction - strong result raising €2.49bn. Total target was €1.5bn-€2.5bn. Average yield 4.375% vs 2.89% on April 4. Bid/cover 4.47 vs 2.41 on April 4. The Euro little changed on the news trading in a narrow 1.2710 to 1.2740 range while EUR/GBP trades around 0.8000. European stock markets led by financials and materials continue to show weakness posting losses of 0.2%

• 07:37

  The market took a breather from taking off risk overnight (Nikkei +0.86%), although the S&P 500 is down nearly 5% in the last month. The minutes of the US Fed's April FOMC meeting yesterday evening stated that some members thought additional support could be required should the recovery lose momentum; dovish at the margin. Japanese GDP for Q1 was released, with the economy growing 1.0% QoQ as expected.

  Eur/Usd (currently $1.2725) is consolidating above $1.27 for now, and with positioning looking stretched a bounce looks likely in the short-term; key support at $1.2625, with resistance on the day at $1.2790. Eur/Gbp (currently £0.8005) rallied after the BoE minutes yesterday, and is consolidating around 80p; support on the day at £0.7980 and £0.7950 below that, with resistance at £0.8020.

  No data release of note this morning, with U.S. Leading Indicators at 3pm the highlight.

• 16 May 2012
• 09:31

  UK April Jobless Claims fall 13,700 vs forecast 5,000 gain. GBP/USD higher on the news trading to 1.5980 while EUR/GBP remains unchanged to 0.7965. Unemployment rate ralls to 8.2% from 8.3% in March

  EUR/USD has received some moderate support this morning on rumours of an emergency ECB meeting today - no confirmation. EUR/USD off it's worst levels at 1.2680 trading back to 1.2740

• 07:36

  Despite some robust data out of the U.S. yesterday, Greece continues to overshadow the market, causing further risk aversion (S&P 500 -0.57%, Nikkei -1.12%). We watch for further updates on the Greek situation, although the BoE Inflation Report out this morning should take the focus away from Athens for an hour or so.

  Eur/Usd (currently $1.2695) looks likely to test the YTD support at $1.2625, although its starting to look stretched; resistance on the day at $1.2790. Eur/Gbp (currently £0.7955) is consolidating below 80p, though similar to Eur/Usd it looks oversold; support on the day at £0.7930, with resistance at £0.8010.

  Eurozone CPI and the BoE Inflation Report are the pick this morning, out at 10am and 10.30am respectively, with U.S. Housing Starts and Industrial Production in the afternoon.

• 15 May 2012
• 14:03

  Greek coalition talks fail - EUR/USD trades to new lows 1.2790 with EUR/GBP back to 0.7980. Elections expected to be announced for 17th June. European bond markets taking a hit with Spanish 10 yr yields back to 6.25% and Italy 5.79%.

• 13:35

  US April  Retail Sales rise 0.1%; ex autos 0.1% (vs exp 0.3%). Empire State Manufacturing Index 17.1 up from 8.5. US core CPI rate climbs 0.2% vs est of flat; y/y +2.3%. Data broadly neutral with little impact on currencies. EUR/USD trades to 1.2840 and EUR/GBP holding above 0.8000.

• 10:13

  Greek auction results: sold €1.3bn of 3 month T-bills. Competitive auction with yield at 4.34% vs 4.20% at auction on April 17. Bid/cover 2.32 vs 2.46 on April 17 - no market impact

• 10:02

  German ZEW May investor expectations 10.8 vs estimate 19 with ZEW Current Situation 44.1 better than forecasted 39.0. Eurozone Q1 GDP q/q flat vs estimate -0.2.  EUR/USD unchanged at 1.2850 while European equity markets have gone into the red after a positive start to the morning post  the strong German GDP report. Spanish and Italian bond yields remain at elevated levels with Spanish 10 year yielding 6.21% and Italy 5.69%.

• 09:34

  UK visible trade balance -£8.56bn vs expectation of -£8.4bn. Non EU trade balance -£4.1bn vs forecast -£4.7bn. Stelring unchanged on the news.

• 08:38

  German Q1 (provisional) GDP +0.5%q/q, y/y +1.7% - better than expected with the market looking for a print of 0.1% and 0.8%. The surpise rise in German GDP is supporting 'risk; with EUR/USD trading back to 1.2870 and EUR/GBP to 0.8000. Next up for investors is the Greek 91-day bill auction at 10.00pm. Greece to sell €1bn.