the treasury specialists

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• 07 February 2012
• 16:25

  Euro continues to be bid through the New York open hitting new highs for the year (previous high 1.3234) as Greek officials and creditors worked on a final draft of an agreement on budget and structural measures needed to secure a second aid package. A close above 1.3230/40 area will be technically significant and could signal a squeeze higher especially in light of the significant number of short positions still in play.

• 13:33

  Euro breaks 1.3150 level again on the back of a Greek Government official saying that they are drafting an agreement bailout deal to be put to political leaders for approval later this evening.

• 11:01

  German Industrial Output falls 2.9% m/m vs flat expectation. Y/Y the outcome was 0.9% vs expectation of 4.30%. This is a very weak release and sees EUR/USD trade back to 1.3120 from 1.3150 earlier.

  EUR/GBP is little changed from opening levels trading in a 0.8300 to 0.8315 range.

  EUR/CHF is supported on remours that SNB president Jordan could raise the floor to 1.2200 from 1.2000. EUR/CHF trades to 1.2285 from 1.2260.

  USD/JPY remains supported this morning trading at 76.77 up from 76.50 yesterday on reports that the BoJ carried out so-called stealth intervention to weaken the JPY in November

• 07:43

  Greece continues to drag on the Eurozone as the EU/IMF and PSI talks stall, but the decision on major reform should be reached today; any further delay could create uncertainty and volatility in the marketplace.

  In a week with plenty of central bank meetings, the Reserve Bank of Australia were first up overnight, surprising the market by not cutting rates and leaving the benchmark rate on hold at 4.25% - the Aussie Dollar rallied strongly as a result.

  Eur/Usd (currently $1.3150) continues to tread water between $1.3020 support and $1.32 resistance for now, while Eur/Gbp (currently 0.8315p) is also rangebound between 0.8270p and 0.8415p.

  The data calendar is light today - German Industrial Production at 11am the focus - so a day of monitoring Greek-related headlines lies ahead.

• 06 February 2012
• 16:33

  Rather uneventful afternoon on the markets with the majors trading in tight ranges throughout the day. The DOW and S&P trading slightly lower after impressive rises on Friday. EU leaders were stepping up pressure on Greece earlier to finish the details of reforms as Sarkozy said today that ''time is running out'' and Merkel warning that ''there can be no new Greece programme if agreement is not reached with the Troika''.

• 11:02

  German December manufacturing data has just been released. The data was stronger than expected, German Factory orders showed a month on month increase of 1.7% versus expectation of 1% and YoY showed 0% versus -.4% expected. Markets unchanged on release while awaiting news from Greece later today.

• 07:38

  Euro-dollar has gapped lower to 1.3060 area after Friday's NY close of $1.3157 after weekend news pointed to a delay to the Greek debt swap deal until later today. It is a quiet day for data in Europe today so traders will again focus on debt/bailout talks from Greece. Greek political leaders must provide a first response to demands by its international creditors on economic measures, including wage cuts, later today. We start the week in a Risk-on environment after the stronger than expected employment data from US on Friday with the DOW close on Friday of 12862 just shy of last years high of 12876.

• 03 February 2012
• 15:01

  US ISM Non Manfacturing for January surprises to the upside printing 56.8 against an expected print of 53.2. USD broadly unchanged

• 13:30

  US Non Farm payrolls report for January surprises to the upside. The report shows an increase of 243,000 for the month against expectations of a 140,000 rise. Unemployment rate also drops more than expected to 8.3% against an expected no change from 8.5% level. EURUSD initally rallies on release.

• 09:37

  PMI data released for the Eurozone. Eurozone service sector stabilises in Jan as growth in France and Germany offsets declines in Spain and Italy. The final Eurozone Services Business Activity Index posted 50.4 in Jan up from 48.8 in Dec but down from the earlier flash estimate of 50.5. Currency Markets little changed pending the release of NFP data later this afternoon.